Is now a bad time to buy a phone?
It's fine, not great. The new models are out; Black Friday carrier deals are a few weeks away.
The year, best to worst
5 = best. ▶ marks this month.
Best windows
- November: Black Friday: in the U.S. often the best time to upgrade through a carrier.
Worst windows
- July: July is a poor month for a Pro iPhone: the September launch is close.
- August: August is a poor month for a Pro iPhone: the September launch is close.
How we know
The sale calendar. Month scores (1–5) are our judgment, based on the well-known retail patterns reported by the sources below. They're not numbers from those sources.
- Macworld, 'Best time to buy an iPhone': Worst time: the weeks before Apple's September launch; July and August are poor months for a Pro iPhone. In the U.S., Black Friday carrier deals are often the best time to upgrade.
BLS CPI: Smartphones (CUUR0000SSEE041, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted).
Inputs: monthly index values from 2019-12 to 2026-09; missing months skipped: October 2025 (Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations). Latest: 34.164 (September 2026), -9.89% vs. a year earlier.
Formula: change = 100 × (index[month] ÷ index[previous month] − 1), averaged by calendar month.
| Month | Avg change | Std dev | n | Fell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.48% | 1.01 | 7 | 4/7 |
| February | -2.14% | 1.70 | 7 | 7/7 |
| March | -2.12% | 1.41 | 7 | 7/7 |
| April | -0.89% | 1.74 | 7 | 5/7 |
| May | -0.97% | 1.99 | 7 | 5/7 |
| June | -1.02% | 1.30 | 7 | 6/7 |
| July | +0.04% | 0.84 | 7 | 3/7 |
| August | -0.72% | 0.59 | 7 | 7/7 |
| September | -1.20% | 1.19 | 7 | 6/7 |
| October | -3.30% | 1.54 | 5 | 5/5 |
| November | -3.16% | 2.16 | 5 | 5/5 |
| December | -1.10% | 1.47 | 6 | 4/6 |
Result: average monthly change -1.42%; the biggest average drops (or smallest rises) were in October (-3.30%), November (-3.16%), February (-2.14%). The gap between the best and worst month is 3.34 points, and the typical swing within a single month is 1.41 points. The CPI adjusts for quality and is sampled during the month, so it can miss short sale events. We show it as a cross-check; the verdict follows the sale calendar.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 26, 2026. Data status: bls: ok, last good October 26, 2026.
Shopping anyway?
FAQ
When is the best time to buy a phone?
By our ranking: November. See "How we know" on this page for the sources and math.
When is the worst time to buy a phone?
By our ranking: July, August.
Should I tell my carrier I'm thinking of leaving?
That's a negotiating tactic, not a timing one. But sure.