Is it a bad time for the beach?
It's fine, not great. Tomorrow at Siesta Key, 9 a.m.–6 p.m.: 84°F high, 26% max rain chance, rip current risk Low, wind up to 22 mph. What drives it: highest heat index, strongest forecast wind.
The forecast, hour by hour
| Hour | Temp | Heat idx | Rain | Thunder | Wind | Sky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9a | 75° | 75° | 5% | 0% | 21 mph NNE | Mostly Sunny |
| 10a | 77° | 77° | 6% | 0% | 21 mph NNE | Mostly Sunny |
| 11a | 79° | 82° | 12% | 0% | 20 mph NE | Mostly Sunny |
| 12p | 81° | 85° | 15% | 0% | 22 mph NE | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| 1p | 82° | 88° | 18% | 0% | 22 mph NE | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| 2p | 83° | 88° | 24% | 0% | 21 mph NE | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| 3p | 83° | 89° | 22% | 0% | 22 mph NE | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| 4p | 84° | 90° | 26% | 0% | 22 mph NE | Chance Rain Showers |
| 5p | 83° | 89° | 24% | 0% | 22 mph NE | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
NWS hourly forecast for the Siesta Key grid point (TBW 70,67), forecast updated 2026-10-27T19:01:35+00:00. Heat index and thunder chance come from the NWS gridpoint data, converted to °F where needed.
Surf zone (NWS Tampa Bay)
| Rip Current Risk | Low |
| Surf Height | 1 foot or less |
| Thunderstorm Potential | None |
| Weather | Mostly sunny |
| High Temperature | In the mid 80s |
| Winds | Northeast winds around 20 mph |
| Saint Petersburg | Low at 10:40 AM EDT |
| Venice Inlet | Low at 09:02 AM EDT |
WEDNESDAY period, Coastal Sarasota zone group (Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota), issued 2026-10-27T07:55:00+00:00. NWS beach page.
EPA UV Index 7 for ZIP 34236 (EPA forecast date Oct/27/2026), high. Shown for sunscreen planning; it doesn't change the verdict.
How the verdict works
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them (any Bad → Bad; else any Meh → Meh; else Good). The NWS heat-index bands come from the NWS chart; all other thresholds are ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS active alerts | None | Severe/Extreme alert = Bad; any other alert = Meh; none = Good | Good |
| Rip current risk (NWS surf zone) | Low (wednesday) | High = Bad; Moderate = Meh; Low = Good | Good |
| Highest chance of rain, 9 a.m.–6 p.m. | 26% | 60%+ = Bad; 30–59% = Meh; under 30% = Good | Good |
| Highest chance of thunder | 0% | 40%+ = Bad; 20–39% = Meh; under 20% = Good | Good |
| Highest heat index | 90°F | 103°F+ = Bad (NWS "danger"); 90–102°F = Meh (NWS "extreme caution"); under 90°F = Good | Meh |
| Highest air temperature | 84°F | under 65°F = Bad; 65–74°F = Meh; 75°F+ = Good | Good |
| Strongest forecast wind | 22 mph | 25 mph+ = Bad; 18–24 mph = Meh; under 18 mph = Good | Meh |
| Red tide (Karenia brevis) nearby | cells: Good; respiratory: Good | FWC medium/high nearby OR respiratory irritation (Mote report, or NOAA Moderate/High) = Bad; FWC low/very low or NOAA Low = Meh; FWC not present/background and no irritation = Good. Missing/stale source = no penalty from that source. | Good |
Result: worst = Meh.
Red tide (Karenia brevis)
Red tide check: Good. Counted for the beach day at Siesta Key and nearby Gulf beaches.
Official FWC abundance categories (Karenia brevis cells per liter):
| Category | Cells/L |
|---|---|
| not present/background | 0–1,000 cells/L |
| very low | >1,000–10,000 cells/L |
| low | >10,000–100,000 cells/L |
| medium | >100,000–1,000,000 cells/L |
| high | >1,000,000 cells/L |
Our rule: medium or high counts within 40 miles, or a respiratory irritation report = Bad. Low or very low counts (or NOAA Low respiratory forecast) = Meh. Not present/background and no irritation = Good. If a source is stale or unavailable, that source adds no penalty.
FWC samples (last 8 days, within 40 mi of Sarasota, FL):
| Date | Location | Mi | Abundance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2026 | Ringling Causeway | 2.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Lido Beach Casino | 3.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Lido Beach | 3.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | South Lido Park | 3.5 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Siesta Beach | 5.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Key Beach | 6.7 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Turtle Beach | 8.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Pass Boat Ramp (Sarasota Bay) | 12.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Palma Sola Bay Bridge | 13.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Nokomis Beach | 15.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Jetty | 15.8 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Venice Beach | 16.9 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
Source: FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, public 8-day layer (exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset. FWC statewide red tide status map.
Respiratory irritation: none reported
| When | Beach (Mote BCRS) | Respiratory | Dead fish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 20:41 | Manasota Key Beach (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 19:26 | Lido Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Nokomis Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Venice North Jetty Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:46 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:25 | Siesta Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:09 | Stump Pass Beach State Park (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 14:28 | North Lido Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 12:34 | Longboat Key (Longboat Key) | None | None |
| 2026-10-26 20:48 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System, last 3 days at Sarasota-area beaches. visitbeaches.org. Dead fish is shown for context; only respiratory irritation changes the verdict.
NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (nearest 5 of 23 sites within 40 mi; model 2026-10-27T18:00:00-04:00; CC0): Lido Beach Casino Very low; South Lido Park Very low; North Lido Beach Very low; Siesta Beach Very low; Longboat Key Beach Very low. NOAA Gulf Coast HAB forecast.
Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:19.475Z (UTC). Red tide is patchy; conditions can change with the wind.
How we know
Live federal forecasts and red tide samples, pulled every 3 hours.
- National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), hourly forecast and alerts for Siesta Key: Official NWS hourly forecast (temperature, chance of precipitation, wind) and active alerts. U.S. government data, public domain.
- NWS Tampa Bay Surf Zone Forecast (Coastal Sarasota): Rip current risk, surf height, thunderstorm potential, UV and water temperature for Siesta Key, Turtle Beach and Venice.
- U.S. EPA UV Index (Envirofacts), ZIP 34236: Daily UV Index forecast by ZIP code from EPA and NWS.
- NWS Heat Index chart: Heat index 90–103°F: extreme caution; 103–124°F: danger; 125°F+: extreme danger.
- FWC-FWRI Karenia brevis current status (8-day sample layer): Public ArcGIS layer of the most recent eight days of Karenia brevis sample points from the FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET. Abundance categories: not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L), very low (>1,000–10,000), low (>10,000–100,000), medium (>100,000–1,000,000), high (>1,000,000). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset.
- Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System (visitbeaches.org): Volunteer Beach Ambassador reports for respiratory irritation and dead fish at Florida beaches, including Siesta, Lido, Turtle Beach, Venice and Longboat Key. Public GraphQL read API; no key.
- NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (RIF): Modeled beach-level respiratory irritation risk from Karenia brevis cell counts and forecast winds, updated about every 3 hours. U.S. government data released under CC0.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 27, 2026. Data status: beach: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · redtide: ok, last good October 27, 2026.
FAQ
What area is this for?
Siesta Key, using the NWS forecast grid point for Siesta Key and the NWS Tampa Bay surf zone forecast for Coastal Sarasota (Siesta Key, Turtle Beach, Venice). Red tide uses FWC samples within 40 miles of Sarasota, Mote beach reports and the NOAA respiratory forecast.
How often does it update?
Every 3 hours. The time of the last NWS forecast update is shown with the hourly table.
Does red tide affect the verdict?
Yes. Medium or high Karenia brevis counts nearby, or a respiratory irritation report, make the day Bad. Low or very low counts make it Meh. Missing data does not change the verdict.
Will the sand be hot?
Yes. It's sand. In Florida.
Can I bring the dog to Siesta Key?
Check local beach rules before you go. We only do weather.