Is it a bad time to go boating?
Wait if you can. Tomorrow off Sarasota (8 a.m.–7 p.m.): wind 25 kt, seas up to 5 ft, bays rough, 0% max thunder chance, Small Craft Advisory.
Marine forecast: Englewood to Tarpon Springs, out 20 nm
| Tonight | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 4 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. |
| Wednesday | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 4 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the evening. |
| Thursday | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
| Thursday Night | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. |
| Friday | Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM, NWS Tampa Bay coastal waters forecast zone GMZ853, updated 2026-10-27T15:11:00-04:00.
How the verdict works
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them. Heat-index bands follow the NWS heat index chart; every other threshold is ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS marine alerts (zone GMZ853) | Small Craft Advisory | Small Craft Advisory, Gale, Storm, Special Marine Warning = Bad; any other = Meh | Bad |
| Marine wind (Wednesday) | 25 kt | 20+ kt = Bad; 15–19 kt = Meh | Bad |
| Seas, nearshore (0–20 nm) | up to 5 ft | 5+ ft = Bad; 3–4 ft = Meh (sized for small boats; ignores "occasionally" peaks) | Bad |
| Bay and inland waters | rough | rough = Bad; choppy = Meh | Bad |
| Thunderstorms in marine text | not mentioned | mentioned = Meh (see thunder chance for Bad) | Good |
| Highest chance of thunder | 0% | 40%+ = Bad; 20–39% = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of rain | 28% | 60%+ = Bad; 30–59% = Meh | Good |
| Red tide (Karenia brevis) nearby | cells: Good; respiratory: Good | FWC medium/high nearby OR respiratory irritation (Mote report, or NOAA Moderate/High) = Bad; FWC low/very low or NOAA Low = Meh; FWC not present/background and no irritation = Good. Missing/stale source = no penalty from that source. | Good |
Result: worst = Bad.
Next few days
| Day | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Today | Bad | Wednesday: 25 kt, seas 5 ft, bays rough, thunder 0% |
| Tomorrow | Bad | Thursday: 20 kt, seas 4 ft, bays choppy, thunder 0% |
| Thu | Meh | Friday: 15 kt, seas 3 ft, bays n/a, thunder 0% |
| Fri | Meh | Saturday: 15 kt, seas 2 ft, bays n/a, thunder 0% |
Same rules as above, applied to each day's window.
NWS hourly forecast for Sarasota (grid TBW/71,70), updated 2026-10-27T19:01:35+00:00. Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:06.088Z (UTC). Partial pull: uv: no UV. Last good copies are used where noted.
Red tide (Karenia brevis)
Red tide check: Good. Counted for boating on Sarasota Bay and nearshore Gulf waters.
Official FWC abundance categories (Karenia brevis cells per liter):
| Category | Cells/L |
|---|---|
| not present/background | 0–1,000 cells/L |
| very low | >1,000–10,000 cells/L |
| low | >10,000–100,000 cells/L |
| medium | >100,000–1,000,000 cells/L |
| high | >1,000,000 cells/L |
Our rule: medium or high counts within 40 miles, or a respiratory irritation report = Bad. Low or very low counts (or NOAA Low respiratory forecast) = Meh. Not present/background and no irritation = Good. If a source is stale or unavailable, that source adds no penalty.
FWC samples (last 8 days, within 40 mi of Sarasota, FL):
| Date | Location | Mi | Abundance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2026 | Ringling Causeway | 2.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Lido Beach Casino | 3.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Lido Beach | 3.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | South Lido Park | 3.5 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Siesta Beach | 5.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Key Beach | 6.7 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Turtle Beach | 8.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Pass Boat Ramp (Sarasota Bay) | 12.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Palma Sola Bay Bridge | 13.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Nokomis Beach | 15.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Jetty | 15.8 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Venice Beach | 16.9 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
Source: FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, public 8-day layer (exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset. FWC statewide red tide status map.
Respiratory irritation: none reported
| When | Beach (Mote BCRS) | Respiratory | Dead fish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 20:41 | Manasota Key Beach (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 19:26 | Lido Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Nokomis Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Venice North Jetty Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:46 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:25 | Siesta Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:09 | Stump Pass Beach State Park (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 14:28 | North Lido Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 12:34 | Longboat Key (Longboat Key) | None | None |
| 2026-10-26 20:48 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System, last 3 days at Sarasota-area beaches. visitbeaches.org. Dead fish is shown for context; only respiratory irritation changes the verdict.
NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (nearest 5 of 23 sites within 40 mi; model 2026-10-27T18:00:00-04:00; CC0): Lido Beach Casino Very low; South Lido Park Very low; North Lido Beach Very low; Siesta Beach Very low; Longboat Key Beach Very low. NOAA Gulf Coast HAB forecast.
Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:19.475Z (UTC). Red tide is patchy; conditions can change with the wind.
How we know
NWS marine and land forecasts, pulled every 3 hours.
- National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), hourly forecast and alerts for Siesta Key: Official NWS hourly forecast (temperature, chance of precipitation, wind) and active alerts. U.S. government data, public domain.
- NWS Tampa Bay coastal waters forecasts (GMZ853, GMZ873): Official NWS marine forecasts for wind, seas and bay/inland waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs, out 20 NM (GMZ853) and 20–60 NM (GMZ873). U.S. government data, public domain.
- FWC-FWRI Karenia brevis current status (8-day sample layer): Public ArcGIS layer of the most recent eight days of Karenia brevis sample points from the FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET. Abundance categories: not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L), very low (>1,000–10,000), low (>10,000–100,000), medium (>100,000–1,000,000), high (>1,000,000). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset.
- Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System (visitbeaches.org): Volunteer Beach Ambassador reports for respiratory irritation and dead fish at Florida beaches, including Siesta, Lido, Turtle Beach, Venice and Longboat Key. Public GraphQL read API; no key.
- NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (RIF): Modeled beach-level respiratory irritation risk from Karenia brevis cell counts and forecast winds, updated about every 3 hours. U.S. government data released under CC0.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 27, 2026. Data status: beach: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · outdoor: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · redtide: ok, last good October 27, 2026.
FAQ
What marine zone is this?
NWS zone GMZ853, coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs, Florida, out 20 nautical miles. It includes the "bay and inland waters" line used for Sarasota Bay.
How often does it update?
Every 3 hours. NWS issues the coastal waters forecast several times a day.
Which waters?
NWS zone GMZ853: Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 nautical miles, including bay and inland waters.