Is it a bad time to go fishing?
It's fine, not great. Bay: Bad. Offshore: Bad. Freshwater: Meh. The headline shows the best of the three. Full moon; tide falling at Sarasota Bay.
Saltwater: Bay · Saltwater: Offshore · Freshwater
Saltwater: Bay and inshore Bad
Sarasota Bay, Roberts Bay, Little Sarasota Bay and the passes.
| Time | Tide | Height (ft, MLLW) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 00:20 | High | 2.58 |
| 2026-10-27 08:50 | Low | -0.17 |
| 2026-10-27 15:27 | High | 1.62 |
| 2026-10-27 19:12 | Low | 1.49 |
| 2026-10-28 00:52 | High | 2.69 |
| 2026-10-28 09:42 | Low | -0.23 |
| 2026-10-29 01:30 | High | 2.71 |
| 2026-10-29 10:40 | Low | -0.22 |
| 2026-10-30 02:18 | High | 2.64 |
| 2026-10-30 11:43 | Low | -0.15 |
NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions, station 8726083 Sarasota, Sarasota Bay (a subordinate station, so high/low times only), local time.
| Tonight | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 4 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. |
| Wednesday | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 4 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 3 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers in the evening. |
| Thursday | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
| Thursday Night | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening. |
| Friday | Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave Detail: North 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. |
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM (includes "bay and inland waters"), NWS Tampa Bay coastal waters forecast zone GMZ853, updated 2026-10-27T15:11:00-04:00.
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them. Heat-index bands follow the NWS heat index chart; every other threshold is ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS marine alerts (GMZ853) | Small Craft Advisory | Small Craft Advisory etc. = Bad; other = Meh | Bad |
| Wind, next 6 hours (land forecast) | 15 mph | 20+ mph = Bad; 13–19 mph = Meh | Meh |
| Bay and inland waters | rough | rough = Bad; choppy = Meh | Bad |
| Highest chance of thunder | 0% | 40%+ = Bad; 20–39% = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of rain | 2% | 60%+ = Bad; 30–59% = Meh | Good |
| Tide (rule of thumb) | Falling, within 1 h of slack; next low 19:12 (1.5 ft) | Moving water = Good; within 1 h of high/low (slack) = Meh. Many anglers favor a moving tide; it's a rule of thumb. | Meh |
| Moon (rule of thumb) | Full, 16.5 days, ~96% lit | Near new or full = Good; otherwise Meh. Folk rule, not science. | Good |
| Red tide (Karenia brevis) nearby | cells: Good; respiratory: Good | FWC medium/high nearby OR respiratory irritation (Mote report, or NOAA Moderate/High) = Bad; FWC low/very low or NOAA Low = Meh; FWC not present/background and no irritation = Good. Missing/stale source = no penalty from that source. | Good |
Result: worst = Bad.
Saltwater: Offshore Bad
| Tonight | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave Detail: North 6 feet at 6 seconds. |
| Wednesday | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave Detail: North 7 feet at 6 seconds. |
| Wednesday Night | Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave Detail: North 7 feet at 6 seconds. |
| Thursday | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 5 feet at 6 seconds. |
| Thursday Night | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave Detail: North 4 feet at 6 seconds. |
| Friday | Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 feet at 6 seconds. |
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL 20 to 60 NM, NWS Tampa Bay coastal waters forecast zone GMZ873, updated 2026-10-27T15:11:00-04:00.
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them. Heat-index bands follow the NWS heat index chart; every other threshold is ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS marine alerts (GMZ873) | Small Craft Advisory | Small Craft Advisory, Gale etc. = Bad; other = Meh | Bad |
| Marine wind (Tonight) | 25 kt | 20+ kt = Bad; 15–19 kt = Meh | Bad |
| Seas, 20–60 nm | up to 6 ft | 6+ ft = Bad; 4–5 ft = Meh | Bad |
| Thunderstorms in marine text | not mentioned | mentioned = Meh | Good |
| Moon (rule of thumb) | Full, 16.5 days, ~96% lit | Near new or full = Good; otherwise Meh. Folk rule, not science. | Good |
| Red tide (Karenia brevis) nearby | cells: Good; respiratory: Good | FWC medium/high nearby OR respiratory irritation (Mote report, or NOAA Moderate/High) = Bad; FWC low/very low or NOAA Low = Meh; FWC not present/background and no irritation = Good. Missing/stale source = no penalty from that source. | Good |
Result: worst = Bad.
Freshwater: lakes and rivers (Myakka and others) Meh
USGS gauge 02298830 (MYAKKA RIVER NEAR SR 72 NEAR SARASOTA, FL): Streamflow, ft³/s 259 at 2026-10-27 18:00 (provisional); Gage height, ft 5.53 at 2026-10-27 18:00 (provisional). Shown for context; it doesn't change the verdict. USGS page.
Pressure: NWS observations at Sarasota-Bradenton airport (KSRQ), Pa ÷ 3386.389 = inHg; trend = latest minus about 3 hours earlier. Red tide does not apply to freshwater.
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them. Heat-index bands follow the NWS heat index chart; every other threshold is ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS alerts (Sarasota) | None | Severe/Extreme = Bad; other = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of thunder | 0% | 40%+ = Bad; 20–39% = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of rain | 2% | 60%+ = Bad; 30–59% = Meh | Good |
| Wind, next 6 hours | 15 mph | 25+ mph = Bad; 15–24 mph = Meh | Meh |
| Air temperature now | 82°F | under 50°F or 95°F+ = Meh (sluggish fish, our rule) | Good |
| Pressure trend, 3 h (rule of thumb) | 29.98 inHg, -0.010 inHg | Rising 0.03+ inHg/3 h (post-front) = Meh; falling or steady = Good. Folk rule. | Good |
| Moon (rule of thumb) | Full, 16.5 days, ~96% lit | Near new or full = Good; otherwise Meh. Folk rule, not science. | Good |
Result: worst = Meh.
Moon and solunar
Moon age: age = ((now − 2000-01-06 18:14 UTC) in days) mod 29.530589 = 16.5 days. Illumination = 50 × (1 − cos(2π × age ÷ 29.53)) ≈ 96% (U.S. Naval Observatory: Waning Gibbous, 97%). Within 1.85 days of new or full = "near full moon".
Solunar periods today (rule of thumb, from USNO moon times for Sarasota): major = moon overhead ±1 h: 1:06a–3:06a (moon overhead 02:06); minor = moonrise/moonset ±30 min: 8:43a–9:43a (moonset 09:13), 7:24p–8:24p (moonrise 19:54). We skip the "moon underfoot" major period because USNO doesn't publish lower transit.
Moon and solunar timing are folk rules of thumb for fish activity, not science we can vouch for. They're shown for planning and nudge the verdict only as noted.
NWS hourly forecast for Sarasota (grid TBW/71,70), updated 2026-10-27T19:01:35+00:00. Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:06.088Z (UTC). Partial pull: uv: no UV. Last good copies are used where noted.
Red tide (Karenia brevis)
Red tide check: Good. Counted for Bay and Offshore only — not Freshwater (Myakka and inland lakes).
Official FWC abundance categories (Karenia brevis cells per liter):
| Category | Cells/L |
|---|---|
| not present/background | 0–1,000 cells/L |
| very low | >1,000–10,000 cells/L |
| low | >10,000–100,000 cells/L |
| medium | >100,000–1,000,000 cells/L |
| high | >1,000,000 cells/L |
Our rule: medium or high counts within 40 miles, or a respiratory irritation report = Bad. Low or very low counts (or NOAA Low respiratory forecast) = Meh. Not present/background and no irritation = Good. If a source is stale or unavailable, that source adds no penalty.
FWC samples (last 8 days, within 40 mi of Sarasota, FL):
| Date | Location | Mi | Abundance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2026 | Ringling Causeway | 2.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Lido Beach Casino | 3.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Lido Beach | 3.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | South Lido Park | 3.5 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Siesta Beach | 5.1 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Key Beach | 6.7 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Turtle Beach | 8.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Longboat Pass Boat Ramp (Sarasota Bay) | 12.4 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Palma Sola Bay Bridge | 13.3 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Nokomis Beach | 15.2 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | North Jetty | 15.8 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
| Oct 26 2026 | Venice Beach | 16.9 | not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L) |
Source: FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, public 8-day layer (exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset. FWC statewide red tide status map.
Respiratory irritation: none reported
| When | Beach (Mote BCRS) | Respiratory | Dead fish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 20:41 | Manasota Key Beach (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 19:26 | Lido Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Nokomis Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:54 | Venice North Jetty Beach (Nokomis) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 18:46 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:25 | Siesta Key Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 15:09 | Stump Pass Beach State Park (Englewood) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 14:28 | North Lido Beach (Sarasota) | None | None |
| 2026-10-27 12:34 | Longboat Key (Longboat Key) | None | None |
| 2026-10-26 20:48 | Venice Beach (Venice) | None | None |
Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System, last 3 days at Sarasota-area beaches. visitbeaches.org. Dead fish is shown for context; only respiratory irritation changes the verdict.
NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (nearest 5 of 23 sites within 40 mi; model 2026-10-27T18:00:00-04:00; CC0): Lido Beach Casino Very low; South Lido Park Very low; North Lido Beach Very low; Siesta Beach Very low; Longboat Key Beach Very low. NOAA Gulf Coast HAB forecast.
Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:19.475Z (UTC). Red tide is patchy; conditions can change with the wind.
How we know
Live federal forecasts, tides and moon data, pulled every 3 hours. Bite factors (tide, moon, pressure) are rules of thumb, labeled as such.
- National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), hourly forecast and alerts for Siesta Key: Official NWS hourly forecast (temperature, chance of precipitation, wind) and active alerts. U.S. government data, public domain.
- NWS Tampa Bay coastal waters forecasts (GMZ853, GMZ873): Official NWS marine forecasts for wind, seas and bay/inland waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs, out 20 NM (GMZ853) and 20–60 NM (GMZ873). U.S. government data, public domain.
- NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions, station 8726083 Sarasota, Sarasota Bay: Predicted high and low tides for Sarasota Bay. NOAA tide predictions are public domain.
- U.S. Naval Observatory Astronomical Applications, rise/set/transit API: Official U.S. Naval Observatory moon rise, set and transit times for Sarasota. Public data for non-commercial use with attribution.
- USGS National Water Information System, Myakka River near SR 72 near Sarasota (02298830): Provisional streamflow and gage height for the Myakka River. USGS NWIS data is public domain.
- FWC-FWRI Karenia brevis current status (8-day sample layer): Public ArcGIS layer of the most recent eight days of Karenia brevis sample points from the FWC-FWRI Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring Database, exported daily ~4:45 p.m. ET. Abundance categories: not present/background (0–1,000 cells/L), very low (>1,000–10,000), low (>10,000–100,000), medium (>100,000–1,000,000), high (>1,000,000). Cite FWC-FWRI. Rapid-release data; not a final dataset.
- Mote Marine Laboratory Beach Conditions Reporting System (visitbeaches.org): Volunteer Beach Ambassador reports for respiratory irritation and dead fish at Florida beaches, including Siesta, Lido, Turtle Beach, Venice and Longboat Key. Public GraphQL read API; no key.
- NOAA NCCOS Gulf Coast respiratory irritation forecast (RIF): Modeled beach-level respiratory irritation risk from Karenia brevis cell counts and forecast winds, updated about every 3 hours. U.S. government data released under CC0.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 27, 2026. Data status: beach: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · outdoor: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · redtide: ok, last good October 27, 2026.
FAQ
Which tide station do you use?
NOAA CO-OPS station 8726083, Sarasota, Sarasota Bay.
How do you calculate the moon phase?
Days since a known new moon (Jan 6, 2000, 18:14 UTC), modulo the 29.53-day synodic month. We cross-check with the U.S. Naval Observatory.
Is solunar fishing real?
It's a popular rule of thumb. We show the periods but don't claim they work.
Bay, offshore or freshwater?
All three, on this page. The headline is the best of the three.