Is now a bad time to buy groceries?
Go for it. Grocery prices (BLS food at home) are +1.8% vs. a year earlier as of September 2026.
The year, best to worst
5 = best. ▶ marks this month.
Best windows
- July: Average monthly change +0.22%.
- August: Average monthly change +0.15%.
- November: Average monthly change -0.20%.
- June: Average monthly change +0.28%.
- December: Average monthly change +0.24%.
Worst windows
- January: Average monthly change +0.69%.
- February: Average monthly change +0.42%.
- April: Average monthly change +0.61%.
How we know
Verdict rule (our thresholds): year-over-year grocery inflation under 2% = Good, 2–4% = Meh, over 4% = Bad. The month chart ranks calendar months by average monthly price change. It's context only: monthly differences are small.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (public API v1): Monthly price indexes, U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted.
BLS CPI: Food at home (CUUR0000SAF11, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted).
Inputs: monthly index values from 2018-09 to 2026-09; missing months skipped: October 2025 (Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations). Latest: 321.758 (September 2026), +1.81% vs. a year earlier.
Formula: change = 100 × (index[month] ÷ index[previous month] − 1), averaged by calendar month.
| Month | Avg change | Std dev | n | Fell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.69% | 0.25 | 8 | 0/8 |
| February | +0.42% | 0.42 | 8 | 0/8 |
| March | +0.32% | 0.52 | 8 | 3/8 |
| April | +0.61% | 0.99 | 8 | 2/8 |
| May | +0.36% | 0.48 | 8 | 1/8 |
| June | +0.28% | 0.44 | 8 | 2/8 |
| July | +0.22% | 0.67 | 8 | 2/8 |
| August | +0.15% | 0.29 | 8 | 4/8 |
| September | +0.32% | 0.44 | 8 | 1/8 |
| October | +0.36% | 0.37 | 7 | 1/7 |
| November | -0.20% | 0.32 | 7 | 6/7 |
| December | +0.24% | 0.21 | 8 | 1/8 |
Result: average monthly change +0.32%; the biggest average drops (or smallest rises) were in November (-0.20%), August (+0.15%), July (+0.22%). The gap between the best and worst month is 0.88 points, and the typical swing within a single month is 0.45 points. The month ranking is shown for context. The verdict uses year-over-year inflation.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 26, 2026. Data status: bls: ok, last good October 26, 2026.
FAQ
When is the best time to buy groceries?
By our ranking: July, August, November, June, December. See "How we know" on this page for the sources and math.
When is the worst time to buy groceries?
By our ranking: January, February, April.
Can I time my grocery shopping?
Not really; you have to eat. This page tracks how fast prices are rising.