Is it a bad time to go hiking?
It's fine, not great. Tomorrow around Sarasota (7 a.m.–7 p.m.): feels up to 92°F, 28% max rain chance, 0% thunder, mosquito risk moderate (our rule).
Mosquito risk: Moderate
This is our own rule of thumb, not an official forecast. No public agency forecasts mosquito activity. We add 1 point for each condition mosquitoes like, using tomorrow's dawn (6–9 a.m.) and dusk (6–9 p.m.) forecast hours:
| Condition | Value | Point |
|---|---|---|
| Temp at dawn/dusk 70°F+ | 82°F | 1 |
| Humidity at dawn/dusk 70%+ | 85% | 1 |
| Calmest dawn/dusk wind under 8 mph | 13 mph | 0 |
| Rain in past 72 h 0.25"+ | not available (KSRQ precip reports incomplete; counts as 0) | 0 |
Total: 2/4 → Moderate. 0–1 = Low, 2 = Moderate, 3–4 = High.
County spray missions: Sarasota County Mosquito Management doesn't spray on a schedule. It plans truck and aerial missions day by day from trap counts and posts them on its homepage and Planned Mission Map, with same-day alerts through Alert Sarasota County. We couldn't find a public, keyless data feed of missions or trap counts to show here, so check Sarasota County Mosquito Management before an evening hike. Report a mosquito problem: call 311.
| Hour | Temp | Feels | Rain | Thunder | Wind | RH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7a | 71° | 71° | 2% | 0% | 13 mph NNE | 85% |
| 8a | 72° | 72° | 6% | 0% | 14 mph NNE | 85% |
| 9a | 74° | 74° | 5% | 0% | 14 mph NNE | 82% |
| 10a | 77° | 77° | 6% | 0% | 14 mph NNE | 78% |
| 11a | 79° | 82° | 13% | 0% | 14 mph NE | 76% |
| 12p | 81° | 86° | 16% | 0% | 16 mph NE | 73% |
| 1p | 83° | 89° | 19% | 0% | 17 mph NE | 70% |
| 2p | 84° | 90° | 24% | 0% | 16 mph NE | 68% |
| 3p | 85° | 91° | 22% | 0% | 18 mph NE | 66% |
| 4p | 85° | 92° | 28% | 0% | 17 mph NE | 65% |
| 5p | 84° | 90° | 25% | 0% | 17 mph NE | 68% |
| 6p | 82° | 87° | 21% | 0% | 17 mph NE | 71% |
"Feels" = NWS heat index where NWS gives one, else air temperature.
NWS hourly forecast for Sarasota (grid TBW/71,70), updated 2026-10-27T19:01:35+00:00. Pulled 2026-10-27T22:20:06.088Z (UTC). Partial pull: uv: no UV. Last good copies are used where noted.
How the verdict works
Rule: each check gets Good, Meh or Bad. The verdict is the worst of them. Heat-index bands follow the NWS heat index chart; every other threshold is ours.
| Check | Input | Thresholds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS active alerts | None | Severe/Extreme = Bad; other = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of rain | 28% | 60%+ = Bad; 30–59% = Meh | Good |
| Highest chance of thunder | 0% | 40%+ = Bad; 20–39% = Meh | Good |
| Highest heat index (or temp) | 92°F | 103°F+ = Bad (NWS danger); 90–102°F = Meh (NWS extreme caution) | Meh |
| Strongest wind (land forecast) | 18 mph | 30+ mph = Bad; 22–29 mph = Meh | Good |
| Mosquito risk (our rule) | Moderate, 2/4 points | 3–4 points = Bad; 2 = Meh; 0–1 = Good; any dawn/dusk temp under 50°F = Good | Meh |
Result: worst = Meh.
Next few days
| Day | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Today | Good | feels 83°F, rain 2%, thunder 0% (weather only) |
| Tomorrow | Meh | feels 92°F, rain 28%, thunder 0% (weather only) |
| Thu | Meh | feels 95°F, rain 35%, thunder 0% (weather only) |
| Fri | Meh | feels 93°F, rain 20%, thunder 0% (weather only) |
Same rules as above, applied to each day's window.
How we know
Live federal forecasts and observations, pulled every 3 hours. The mosquito score is our own rule, shown in full.
- National Weather Service API (api.weather.gov), hourly forecast and alerts for Siesta Key: Official NWS hourly forecast (temperature, chance of precipitation, wind) and active alerts. U.S. government data, public domain.
- NWS Heat Index chart: Heat index 90–103°F: extreme caution; 103–124°F: danger; 125°F+: extreme danger.
- NWS observations, Sarasota-Bradenton airport (KSRQ): Recent pressure and precipitation observations used for pressure trend and the hiking mosquito rule. U.S. government data, public domain.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 27, 2026. Data status: beach: ok, last good October 27, 2026 · outdoor: ok, last good October 27, 2026.
FAQ
Is the mosquito forecast official?
No. It's our rule of thumb from temperature, humidity, wind and recent rain. No agency publishes a mosquito forecast for Sarasota.
Does the county spray for mosquitoes?
Yes, Sarasota County Mosquito Management plans truck and aerial missions day by day from trap data and posts them on its website.
Is the mosquito score official?
No. It's our own rule from temperature, humidity, wind and recent rain.