Is now a bad time to fly?
Go for it. October on-time arrivals average 83.0% (rank 1 of 12 months), and Monday is the 4th-quietest day of the week at TSA checkpoints.
The year, best to worst
5 = best. ▶ marks this month.
Best windows
- September: 82.3% of flights on time; 0.78% cancelled.
- October: 83.0% of flights on time; 0.64% cancelled.
- November: 82.8% of flights on time; 1.03% cancelled.
- February: 79.8% of flights on time; 1.52% cancelled.
- April: 78.6% of flights on time; 1.03% cancelled.
Worst windows
- June: 72.0% of flights on time; 1.66% cancelled.
- July: 69.0% of flights on time; 2.65% cancelled.
- August: 74.8% of flights on time; 1.63% cancelled.
How we know
Federal flight data. The verdict uses this month's on-time rank.
- U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance: Every domestic flight by reporting carriers: scheduled, cancelled, diverted, and arrivals 15+ minutes late.
- TSA checkpoint travel numbers: Daily count of travelers screened at TSA checkpoints.
BTS on-time performance: every domestic flight by reporting carriers, 2023-01 to 2026-08.
Formula: on-time % = (scheduled − cancelled − diverted − arrived 15+ min late) ÷ scheduled, pooled across the years for each calendar month. Months are ranked by on-time % (top 3 = 5 points … bottom 3 = 1 point).
| Month | Flights | On-time | Cancelled | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2,169,858 | 75.7% | 3.35% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| February | 2,041,891 | 79.8% | 1.52% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| March | 2,385,063 | 76.4% | 1.56% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| April | 2,325,495 | 78.6% | 1.03% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| May | 2,407,084 | 76.6% | 0.98% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| June | 2,407,546 | 72.0% | 1.66% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| July | 1,868,449 | 69.0% | 2.65% | 2023, 2024, 2026 |
| August | 2,432,779 | 74.8% | 1.63% | 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| September | 1,714,399 | 82.3% | 0.78% | 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| October | 1,820,309 | 83.0% | 0.64% | 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| November | 1,709,731 | 82.8% | 1.03% | 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| December | 1,743,279 | 77.9% | 0.89% | 2023, 2024, 2025 |
TSA checkpoint volume by day of week: 298 days, 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-25. Average travelers screened:
| Day | Avg screened | Days |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 2,680,845 | 43 |
| Monday | 2,590,840 | 42 |
| Tuesday | 2,152,276 | 42 |
| Wednesday | 2,298,482 | 42 |
| Thursday | 2,687,452 | 43 |
| Friday | 2,677,854 | 43 |
| Saturday | 2,227,270 | 43 |
Crowds aren't delays, but busier checkpoints mean longer lines. The day-of-week ranking doesn't change the verdict.
BLS CPI: Airline fares (CUUR0000SETG01, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted).
Inputs: monthly index values from 2018-09 to 2026-09; missing months skipped: October 2025 (Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations). Latest: 315.948 (September 2026), +22.45% vs. a year earlier.
Formula: change = 100 × (index[month] ÷ index[previous month] − 1), averaged by calendar month.
| Month | Avg change | Std dev | n | Fell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +0.97% | 2.79 | 8 | 2/8 |
| February | +3.37% | 3.20 | 8 | 2/8 |
| March | +0.02% | 6.31 | 8 | 3/8 |
| April | +5.05% | 9.85 | 8 | 1/8 |
| May | +5.53% | 5.94 | 8 | 1/8 |
| June | -1.40% | 3.29 | 8 | 6/8 |
| July | -5.48% | 3.06 | 8 | 8/8 |
| August | -3.81% | 4.60 | 8 | 7/8 |
| September | +0.19% | 3.06 | 8 | 3/8 |
| October | +4.59% | 2.45 | 7 | 0/7 |
| November | +1.16% | 2.05 | 7 | 3/7 |
| December | -4.92% | 2.72 | 8 | 8/8 |
Result: average monthly change +0.44%; the biggest average drops (or smallest rises) were in July (-5.48%), December (-4.92%), August (-3.81%). The gap between the best and worst month is 11.01 points, and the typical swing within a single month is 4.11 points. Airfare CPI is shown for context. It does not affect the verdict.
Last updated: page rebuilt October 26, 2026. Data status: bls: ok, last good October 26, 2026 · bts: ok, last good October 26, 2026 · tsa: ok, last good October 26, 2026.
FAQ
When is the best time to fly?
By our ranking: September, October, November, February, April. See "How we know" on this page for the sources and math.
When is the worst time to fly?
By our ranking: June, July, August.
Will my flight be late?
We don't know your flight. We know the averages, and they're on this page.